This is How Wars Start

As you read this computer screen, the Russian Air Force is bombing Syria. Sixty strikes on 50 targets in the last 3 days. MiGs are hitting ISIS camps; they are also attacking “moderate” rebels. The net effect is the same. Whether Russian bombs level ISIS camps or moderate camps, opponents of Syria’s President Assad die. Putin has sent his Air Force to save Assad.

Don’t they teach history in Moscow? Just like post-WW1 Germany, Post-Cold War Russia is a great power who just lost a war, elected a strongman, and backs another strongman with airpower in a civil war. Just as Hitler’s air force backed Franco, Putin’s air force is backing Assad. Think of Putin’s Russia as Hitler’s Prussia, 78 years on. Putin is our generation’s Hitler (minus the pogroms). History repeats itself.

By loosing Russian airpower against moderate Syrian rebels, Putin is playing with fire.

The United States wants to get rid of Assad. Our means are the moderate Syrian rebels. They are America’s ally in this fight. At some point the US Air Force might rise to protect our ally from Russian air attack. In other words, dogfights over Damascus; MiGs versus F-22s.

America has the option of doing nothing. We could just stand by when MiGs bomb Syrian rebels. But that would mean backing down to Putin’s Russia.

This is how wars start. To say we are in a dangerous situation is an understatement.

In the early 20^th Century, leaders constantly feared that “some damn foolish thing in the Balkans” would start the next war. That’s exactly what ignited World War I. In our time, we have lived with the fear that the Mideast will spark the next war. Will history repeat itself? It usually does.

Before we demonize Putin for putting us in this dilemma, consider for a moment that Putin may be right.

Syrian refugees are swarming into Europe. They are driven by unlivable turmoil in Syria -- the kind that only a strongman can put down. Assad is no worse than any other Syrian strongman. He’s far better than ISIS, which continues to grow. Refugees lived under Assad before; they’ll do it again. It is painful to admit, but only a strongman can control the thugs of Syria.

Russian airstrikes reveal a strategy that goes far beyond "who rules Syria." The world is full of artificial “nations” like Syria. Russian airstrikes against all rebels reveal Putin’s theory of democratic failure. Democracies have failed to export democracy. From Cairo to Kabul, democracy has only led to instability -- which has led to terrorism and flight.  Putin is just among the few world leaders who realize that “Imposed Democracy” has failed. Nations will only move from totalitarianism to democracy on their internal terms and schedules.

Xi’s China and increasing numbers of Europeans agree with Putin’s actions. After years of turmoil to export Democracy, people yearn for peace. They want stability – and will forego the growth of democracy to get it.

The Developed World wants quiet borders and a lid on terrorism. The only proven path to that end is uncomfortable: we must back lots of strongmen in the Undeveloped World. Only strongmen will prevent chaos.

This strategy is familiar to Americans. During the Cold War, the United States backed strongmen around the world. Syngman Rhee in South Korea, Pinochet in Chili, Noriega in Panama, the Shah in Iran, etc. The Soviet threat was so great that America backed anti-communist dictators of whatever stripe.

Fast-forward to today. Was the threat to American sovereignty greater during the Cold War than it is now? If the measure is casualties, the threat is greater today. If the US was justified in bedding strongmen during the Cold War, are we not justified in backing strongmen today?

From this perspective, Putin’s airstrikes make sense. Before we instinctively send our jets to stop Putin, we should step back and understand our own goals.