Militaries fight wars. Only nations can win
wars. In Kosovo, Vietnam, Iraq, Kuwait and Afghanistan, the combination of force,
diplomacy, social commitment, knowledge and wealth defined and decided victory
and defeat. Military force may decide a single battle, but never a war.
Consider this telling exchange between two combat veterans after
the Vietnam War. "You
know, you never beat us on the battlefield," said the American officer. "That may be so,” responded the North Vietnamese officer, “but it is also irrelevant."
In Vietnam, America had overwhelming superiority in wealth
and military might. However, Hanoi had superior: 1) knowledge (often courtesy
of our South Vietnamese “allies”); 2) world opinion (China and Russia were
rivers of supply); and, 3) internal commitment to victory – regardless of cost.
As a result, America – not just our military – lost its first war.
Go even further back in history – to the American Civil War.
The North had overwhelming advantages in wealth and military might. That may
not have sufficed if President Lincoln had not: 1) used diplomacy to isolate the South from
foreign assistance (e.g., Britain stayed neutral); and, 2) firmed Northern
resolve through the Emancipation Proclamation. After the first two years of
war, both sides had equal knowledge of the other. All five elements produced
victory.
In Kosovo, NATO (led by America): 1) isolated Belgrade from
foreign support; 2) targeted the wealth of oligarchs propping up Milosevic’s
regime; 3) knew more about Serbia’s fielded forces than Serbia’s generals; 4)
attacked the teeth of Serbian defenses without suffering a single casualty;
and; 5) maintained solid popular support across America and the world. Again,
all five elements of power produced victory.
Fast forward to today. We hear calls to declare war on ISIL
(Islamic State in the Levant). These calls emphasize America’s huge advantages
in wealth and military force. But what about diplomacy, social commitment, and knowledge?
Is the world, or even the region behind us? Are Americans as dedicated to
victory as ISIL’s fighters? Do we know more about ISIL than they know of
us?
The answers to these basic questions are clearly NO. After
our unjustified invasion of Iraq, America is hated across the Arab world. Shopkeepers,
plumbers, mechanics, teachers – everyday, working people – distrust everything
we say and do. Since “the friend of your enemy is your enemy,” anyone who sides
with America comes under equal suspicion. We can undermine ISIL’s popular
support by revealing its atrocities, but until and unless these revelations
shift popular revulsion from America to ISIL, nations and groups across the region
and the world will help ISIL in any war with America.
As for social commitment, ISIL’s followers equate defeat
with death. Americans equate defeat with embarrassment. Nor do Americans know
more about the enemy than they know of us. In fact, ISIL understands ground
truth far more than we will ever know.
Despite advantages in force and wealth, America is
handicapped in any war with ISIL by severe disadvantages in commitment,
knowledge and regional support. History shows that victory in such
circumstances is unlikely.
