Tough Mother Russia

In early 1997, I accompanied a US Assistant Secretary of Defense in face-to-face negotiations with a Russian minister in Moscow. Our closed-door meeting had only 4 people in the room: my Assistant Secretary; the Russian minister; an interpreter; and, me.

At that time, the US enjoyed huge economic and military advantages over Russia.

The US economy was booming with the Dow Jones average reaching an all-time high. The Russian economy was in tatters. Only one year later the Russian government would devalue the Ruble and default on its debt.

The US military was just 6 years removed from destroying Iraq’s Russian-supplied weapons in Operation Desert Storm. America’s stealth and precision monopolies were the envy of the world. Russia’s military was a comparative wreck. It had just absorbed a second wave of massive post-USSR reductions; training was practically non-existent.

Despite these disparities, the Russian minister in 1997 would not compromise. He would not negotiate. The concept of “cost-benefit ratio” seemed alien to him. The Russian refused to give up anything if it resulted in any cost to Russia, however intangible that cost might be. He was like a boxer who will take 10 shots to the head in order to get inside to land one shot of his own. His message? Just because Russia was weak did NOT mean Russians weren’t tough.

Fast forward to 2014 and Crimea. Promises and threats of economic benefits or sanctions will NOT drive Russia to reverse course. As George Kennan wrote in 1946, “deep and powerful currents of Russian nationalism” are “impervious to the logic of reason, and highly sensitive to the logic of force.” Russia will only reverse course if forced to do so.

Force is the only currency Moscow will accept – and this is too high a price for Kiev to pay. Unwilling to resort to force, Ukraine has accepted Russia’s will. It is difficult to imagine why the United States should pay the price of force for Crimea when Ukrainians are unwilling to pay it themselves. Mother Russia may be weak, but it remains a tough mother.